
MAIN CARD
BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk
This is going to be an exciting fight that will not go to a decision. BJ Penn’s strengths are… well, just about everything. His only weakness has historically been his cardio. However, he appears to have turned a corner in the past year and has really focused on training.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Keith Jardine
This is going to be a disappointing night for all of the life long Wanderlei Silva fans (myself included). The old Wanderlei of Pride is gone. Even if he still possesses the ability to resurrect the killer that everyone fell in love with, his current situation will prevent him from doing so. He’s coming off of three back-to-back losses and is desperate for a win. Compounding this is the fact that he is now training with Xtreme Couture. When was the last time you remember an Xtreme Couture fighter come out and fight with the type of reckless abandon that made Silva a champion?
Keith Jardine has all of the tool to beat Silva. Wanderlei’s problems have been with fighters that have a reach advantage and can stay on the outside. In his fight with Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei could never get on the inside. Liddell used his reach perfectly. Unfortunately for Silva, Jardine and Liddell both have a reach of 76″, as opposed to his 74″ reach. Also, Jardine uses front kicks very effectively to keep his opponents on the outside.
Finally, Jardine’s size advantage will help him out too. In Wanderlei’s fight against Liddell, he looked extremely small. After this fight, Wanderlei should drop down a weight class (which he will supposedly do).
One final prediction - I think this fight will go to the ground. I have a feeling that Jardine will suprise everyone, including Silva, and take the fight to the ground. In an interview with the Beatdown radio show, Greg Jackson dropped a few hints that people would be suprised. He also talked about how underestimated Jardine’s ground game is. I’ve seen a few videos on YouTube of Jardine in grappling tournaments, and, much to my surprise, his grappling game looked pretty impressive. He also showed a good ground game in his fight against Mike Whitehead at UFC 57. Fighters from Greg Jackson’s camp are known for their grappling skills and he is no different. Due to the fighting styles of Jardine’s weight class and the opponents he’s faced, he has just never had to use them.
Prediction - Jardine via TKO in the 2nd round.
Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida
I’m not sure if Tito Ortiz even knows he’s fighting a guy named Lyoto Machida. I don’t think I’ve heard Tito mention Machida’s name in the run-up to this fight. In Tito’s mind, he will be facing Dana White in the octagon. This could be either good or bad. It could be good in that it may have supplied a lot of motivation for him to train hard and cause him to come out with an intensity we haven’t seen from him in a long time. Tito has always fight on a lot of emotion and it’s hard to believe that emotion won’t be on display for his last fight in the UFC.
The alternative is that Tito may not have had the type of focused training needed for an opponent such as Machida. Unlike most other fighters, Tito can’t expect Machida to come forward at him… ever. Machida’s patience is unlike any other fighter currently in the UFC, regardless of boo’s or cheers. It get Machida down, which I fully expect him to, Tito’s going to have to get on his bike and chase him down. In his last fight against Chuck Liddell at UFC 66, he showed a decent ability to cut off the ring. If he can do this against Machida, then he will have a much better night.
The problem with Machida is that he has never faced an opponent with such an aggressive ground-n-pound. In preparations for this fight, he trained with Josh Koscheck at the American Kickboxing Academy (AKA). However, I don’t think that it’ll help with Tito’s brand of wrestling too much. Unless Machida can use his elusiveness to keep the fight standing and frustrate Tito, I don’t see him winning this.
Prediction - Tito Ortiz via unanimous decision.
Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic
Wilson Gouveia narrowly escaped defeat against Jason Lambert at UFC 80 but I think he’ll have a much easier time with Goran Reljic. Goran trains with Gracie Barra UK and is a brown belt under Roger Gracie. However, his standup is seriously lacking. Couple this with the fact that this will be his UFC debit and it doesn’t look like an ideal UFC debut.
Prediction - Gouveia via TKO in the 1st round.
Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes
This is another fight that pits a promising light heavyweight who has collected a few wins in the UFC against a fighter making his UFC debut. Statistically speaking, one of these UFC veterans will be upset. However, I don’t it’ll be Thiago. My hope is that it will be Wilson Gouveia.
Prediction - Thiago Silva via TKO in the 1st round.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Rich Clementi vs. Terry Etim
Hopefully Rich Clementi will get some love when he takes this fight and can change his nickname from “No Love”. Terry Etim’s fight against Gleison Tibau at UFC 75 show that he could be taken down and controlled by a bigger, stronger opponent. Meet Rich Clementi - a bigger, stronger opponent. Etim’s striking has looked impressive but if Clementi can take a shot from Anthony Johnson, I don’t expect Etim to give him any problems. Clementi’s jiu-jitsu has looked good and I think it’ll win this fight for him.
Prediction - Rich Clementi via submission in the 2nd round.
John Koppenhaver vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
This fight is going to be violent. Both fighters have aggressive styles that can only be described as violent. According to Sherdog’s Jordan Breen, Yoshida has been able to overcome the huge hurdle of fighting in the cage that has plagued so many other Japanese fighters before him. I guess we’ll see.
Prediction - Yoshiyuki Yoshida via KO in the 2nd round.
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Prediction - Sokoudjou via KO in the 1st round.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Ivan Salaverry
Prediction - Palhares via submission in the 1st round.
Dong-Hyun Kim vs. Jason Tan
Prediction - Kim via KO in the 1st round because Luke Thomas says so.
Shane Carwin vs. Christian Wellisch
Prediction - Shane Carwin via hype.